New Year is coming, but our country's coal prices there is still no "new look", the coal market is still in the winter.
Since May 2012, our country's coal market situation change, coal prices appeared "DuanBi type", "avalanche" decline, some local coal prices fell 200 yuan per ton. Today, I still like the original that coal market in the winter will be the norm.
In 2011, before the golden period of 10 years, the coal industry development up prices is demand driven, the rising cost of coal was mainly affected by policy ZengZhi factors. This view has been recognized by all.
Nowadays, a little analysis, can draw the conclusion that the trend of the development of the global energy industry is: efficient, clean, green will become the main direction of future development. Interactions between all kinds of energy will be more deep; All kinds of energy cost, efficiency and environmental constraints, technological progress, the influence of such factors as will deeply effect, shift between each other; Energy industry technology progress with each passing day. In a distributed power supply, integrated gasification combined cycle power generation (IGCC), uhv transmission technology, smart grid, third and fourth generation nuclear power, such as shale gas, commercial development burgeoning energy technology revolution, will have important impact on future energy industry pattern; Energy consumption growth will slow. Is the development trend of coal industry: current and future a period, will be a big adjustment, the differentiation of the coal industry.
Now, three carriage drive China's economy faces "power shortage" problem. A look from exports, China has two years in a row as the world's largest exporter, has reached 10.4%, the proportion in world trade since 1978, the average annual growth of 16.8% total import and export, export growth is above 20%. Under the current higher exports, export is difficult to keep the growth in the future. With China's labor costs rise, southeast Asia and other countries have also started to carve up China's export markets. From the investment, the advancement of industrialization and urbanization leads to the whole society fixed assets investment increased dramatically, fixed asset investment growth remained at 25%, a massive infrastructure investment, has caused more hair, high local debt and a series of problems, it is impossible to keep the growth in the future. Three from consumption, the consumption in recent years continue to fall as a share of GDP, the social security system is imperfect, high national savings habits factors, such as establishing domestic demand-led development model will take time.
According to above analysis, we believe that the future will present the following pattern: coal industry is a main body status will not change, but growth will slow, specific gravity decreases. Second, structural surplus is inevitable. Coal fixed asset investment growth in 2003 from $2003 to $2011 by 470 billion yuan, the accumulation of new investment in fixed assets of 1.9362 trillion yuan, can new capacity of 2.4 billion tons, of which about 1.6 billion tonnes will release during the 12th five-year, coal supply exceeds demand, return to the social average profit level is a foregone conclusion. 3 it is the competitive landscape major changes will occur. The stronger the strong and the weak weaker, and some of the low efficiency, poor resource conditions of coal enterprises will be eliminated. In addition, the joint reorganization of coal and electric power enterprises, holding each other, form a community of interests, common to withstand market risks, will be the next step of coal and electric power enterprises is an important option. 4 it is coal industry will enter the innovation driver stage. In the last decade, as the coal market structural surplus of high input, high-yield development model will be unsustainable, coal industry will be driven by the previous investment into the innovation driver stage. Through technical innovation and business model innovation, to provide customers more efficient, convenient and diversified value-added services, will become the core issue of improving competition. Five is the channel construction is accelerated, the impact of coal imports more severe. "Western coal shipped east", "south north coal shipped" bottleneck is expected to radically improve in early 2014. Coal overseas channel more clear. In 2011, overseas Chinese coal imports more than 200 million tons, more than Japan to become the world's largest coal importer.
To sum up, the coal industry of the winter will be the norm, "to survive" is not to the spring.