Shanxi Pingyao Fengyan Coal & Coke Group Co., Ltd.          晋ICP84578454号     Powered by

Shanxi Pingyao Fengyan Coal & Coke Group Co., Ltd.

ADD:Shanxi Jinzhong away in Fengyan Industrial Park, Xihu Village, Zhongdu Town, Pingyao County, Jingzhong City, Shanxi Province
Group switchboard:0354-5637007
Group General Manager:0354-5637017
Group H.R :0354-5639140
Group Sales Department:0354-5637023   +86 182 3447 7608 

Coal supply loose pattern is difficult to change

Coal supply loose pattern is difficult to change

Page view
The loose pattern of domestic coal market supply exceeds demand is difficult to quickly reverse, 2014 thermal coal futures could not continue rising since going public on September 26, 2013. Thermal coal futures in the whole year of 2014 is expected to present a tumultuous oscillation declines, don't rule out the possibility of seasonal rebound, but the price band down somewhat.
Supply loose pattern cannot alter
The development of China's coal industry with rapid growth of the Chinese economy arises at the historic moment. At the beginning of this century, our country's coal supply to stimulate the domestic coal production and capacity expanded rapidly, not only state-owned large mineral can accelerate expansion, private capital also quickly into the selecting coal industry. But since then, the coal demand growth in China has gradually behind the production growth, the supply and demand gap gradually disappear, the large capacity coal industry sustained release causes our country to supply coal market, directly on the price of coal.
For the coal market in 2014, the dominant factors still comes from the supply level of coal production release. Although coal industry "capacity" policy guidance, but you need time to change, policy influence on coal supply lag. , according to the fixed investment of past coal industry "twelfth five-year" period of our country coal market still faces new capacity to release pressure supply. At the same time, domestic macroeconomic is still in the bottoming cycle, infrastructure and real estate industry and fixed investment growth fell back, industrial decline in demand, combined with the clean energy alternatives and environmental protection subject hype, coal consumption overall.
An increasing coal imports
In addition to production, imports as part of the supply of domestic power coal prices in recent years also play a crucial influence. Due to the international coal prices fell sharply imported coal prices cheaper and lower import tariffs, China's coal imports increased significantly in recent years, this to some extent a inhibitory effect to thermal coal prices.
Thanks to better import profits, China's coal imports in 2013 remained strong growth momentum. 1 - in November 2013, the country has imported 292 million tons of coal, year-on-year growth of 15.1%, is expected to import 320 million tons, annual net coal year-on-year increase of 30 million tons. We have learned, in east China, south China many power plants in the coastal provinces and autonomous regions have of coal-fired boiler, to use imported coal. 2014, our country will continue to carry out 0% of all kinds of coal products imported goods temporary tariff rate, imported coal price advantage is expected to continue, the coastal areas in China may form the pattern of the coal import and domestic trade fierce competition.
Afternoon looking
Last week (12-23-12. 29) after shenhua coal companies such as stop continuous price increase, thermal coal spot prices have signs of loosening, is expected in the first quarter of 2014, had winter end of the stock cycle and imported coal to the port, the influence of thermal coal price will gradually back, low may occur at the end of march in the northern heating period. In the second quarter, the market will begin to pay close attention to "" summer peaks of steam coal inventory requirements, daqin railway maintenance in spring, prices may be falling stabilizing, but in the second quarter of the domestic coal production began to rise from month to month, and downstream enterprise procurement ideas may give priority to in order to maintain safety stock, the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to reverse. In the third quarter is the peak season in the whole society, but hydroelectric power contribution part will weaken the coal demand increase, the thermal coal price possible peak back, may peak in July, low is expected to appear at the end of the summer peak. In the fourth quarter, daqin railway will usher in autumn maintenance, power plant started preparing "had winter heating, and water and electricity output, thermal coal inventory requirements or higher than the summer, prices could usher in a seasonal rebound, rebound height depends on short term fundamentals of supply and demand change, high may appear after November