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In the first half of next year the coal market is hardly better

In the first half of next year the coal market is hardly better

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Coal market seems will recover soon. Recently, including shenhua, with coal, coal, the three leading coal companies have raised a new coal sales price, bohai sea thermal coal price index "jumped" situation now, also the biggest gain in 18 yuan/ton years.
China coal industry association judgment, however, from the current situation analysis, although coal market there have been some positive changes, in the first half of 2014 is still difficult to stop. "National coal market supply and demand total loose, structural surplus situation is difficult to change," on December 6, China coal, vice-chairman of zhi-min jiang said in coal economy operation situation briefings "inventories remain high in the whole society, the enterprise management continue to face greater difficulties and risks."
Growth in quantity and price rebound
According to the bulletin, coal ChanYunXiao volume are increased in October.
In October, the national complete coal production 320 million tons, up 1.6% from a year earlier. Complete the 309 million tons of coal sales, up 1.9% from a year earlier, faster than 1.2% in September. The first 10 months, the national coal 3.09 billion tons, fell 0.3% year on year, the fourth consecutive month that the decline in arrow; Accumulative total sales of 2.95 billion tons of coal, fell 0.1% year on year.
China coal association predicts that in November, the national coal output of 330 million tons, 317 million tons of coal sales, compared to the same will continue to rise slightly.
Coal cargo aspects, the first 10 months of national railway shipment coal 1.91 billion tons, year-on-year increase of 39.59 million tons, 2.1% growth, growth ratio up 0.7% in the first nine months; Coal in November completed railway freight volume of 200 million tons, up 3.2% from a year earlier, the first 10 months of the main port of shipment coal 547 million tons, up 6%; The shipment in October of 57.71 million tons, up 9.9% from a year earlier.
Coal prices recover. Since September the coal price decline gradually narrowed, rallied in early October, in November picks up speed is accelerated. Released on November 29, the association of China coal price index (index) of 160.6, 2.8 points higher than in late September. On December 4, qinhuangdao 5500 kcal market power coal price 590-600 yuan/ton; Thermal coal futures index is 592.8, T401 closing price 594 yuan/ton. Coking coal prices basic remained stable since the middle of October. On December 5, 1117140 1 coking coal coking coal futures index closing price 1085 yuan/ton.
Coal investment from fall to rise. The first 10 months of coal CaiXuanYe investment in fixed assets of 426.9 billion yuan, up 1.3% from a year earlier. The private investment in 243.1 billion yuan, up 7.1% from a year earlier.
Coal market sentiment. In October, the national coal market sentiment index is 15.3, higher than September 3.4 basis points.
Short-term recovery of inversion
China coal association analysis, the current coal market changes mainly by macroeconomic stabilisation in positive, winter heating coal demand and coal consumption to increase thermal power generation, and the international steam coal market showed signs of stabilising picks up and so on factors. But imports from inventory, as well as business data, the national coal market reversal signal was not there.
Coal inventories are still high. In late October, 88 million tons of coal enterprise inventory, fell 7.15 million tons, down 7.5%, but still higher than the same period in 2011, 33 million tons; Key power generation enterprises to save 81.02 million tons of coal, year-on-year increase of 7.76 million tons, an increase of 10.6%, compared to reduce 12.7 million tons, down 13.5%, an average of 23 days available (on November 30, 82.67 million tons of coal, or 21 days). Save 39.39 million tons of coal in the main ports, fell 4.77 million tons, fell by 10.8%, compared to reduce 540000 tons, down 1.4% on December 5, qinhuangdao port coal 4.82 million tons, caofeidian port to save 3.43 million tons of coal.
Coal imports continue to grow. The first 10 months of imports coal 263 million tons, up 17.3%; Exports of 6.31 million tons, down 20%; Net imports of 257 million tons, year-on-year increase of 40.4 million tons, an increase of 18.7%.
Coal enterprises economic decline. One is the industry profits continue to fall sharply. The first 10 months of the large-scale coal enterprise profit fell 38.8% year on year, the loss of enterprise loss of 40.554 billion yuan, up 80.7% from a year earlier. Large-scale coal enterprise profits fell 37.03% year on year, of which 33 enterprise losses, percentage of loss-incurring enterprises 36.7%, loss 16.7% more than last year. The second is the enterprise costs continue to rise. The first 10 months of the large-scale coal enterprise main business cost year-on-year growth of 4.56% in the three payment collection is difficult. In late October the large-scale coal enterprise accounts receivable RMB 333.4 billion, up 10.44% from a year earlier.
China coal association predicts that in 2013 the total output of raw coal 3.7 billion tons, net coal import about 310 million tons. "Forecast coal consumption growth in China in 2014 at about 3%, the second half of the coal supply or will tend to overall balance, but economic operation pressure will remain." Zhi-min jiang said.
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